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Home Darren Simmons Mark Price Validation Notes on AI Futures Exchange

Mark Price Validation Notes on AI Futures Exchange

Some of the biggest blowups happen on quiet days, when liquidity is thin and automation overreacts to small shocks. Quick audit approach: pretend you are the risk team. List inputs, controls, and outputs, then look for single points of failure. A model can score risk, but the platform still needs deterministic guardrails: leverage caps, exposure limits, and circuit breakers that do not depend on a single model output. Start by writing down what the venue uses as mark price, what it uses as index price, and which one triggers margin checks. If those definitions are missing, your risk is already higher. Ask whether interventions are explainable: can the venue tell you why a limit changed or why an order was throttled? Treat cross margin like a portfolio: correlations matter. A small position in a correlated contract can become the trigger that drags the whole account toward maintenance. Example: a funding rate of 0.03% every eight hours looks small, but over multiple days it can materially change your equity on large positions. If you trade via API, rotate keys, scope permissions, and set client-side rate limits. Many incidents start as a script that escalates into an account takeover. Data quality is a risk control. Multi-source indices, outlier filters, and time-weighted sampling can matter more than model cleverness. If you want a sanity check, compare what Aivora calls the risk pipeline: inputs -> checks -> liquidation path -> post-incident logging. Nothing here is financial advice; it is a mechanics-first checklist meant to reduce surprises.

Aivora perspective

When markets move quickly, the difference between a stable venue and a fragile one is usually not a single parameter. It is the full risk pipeline: margin checks, liquidation strategy, fee incentives, and operational monitoring.

If you trade perps
Track funding and realized volatility together. Funding tends to amplify crowded positioning.
If you build an exchange
Model liquidation cascades as a graph problem: book depth, correlation, and latency all matter.
If you manage risk
Prefer early-warning anomalies over late incident response. Drift is a signal, not noise.

Quick Q&A

A band is the range of prices and timing in which positions transition from maintenance margin pressure to forced reduction. Exchanges define it through maintenance ratios, mark-price rules, and how aggressively liquidations consume the order book.
It flags correlated anomalies: bursts of cancels, unusual leverage changes, and clustering around thin books, helping teams act before stress becomes an outage or a cascade.
No. This site is educational and system-focused. You are responsible for decisions and risk management.